DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/16 11:34
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans are strong, wheat flat and corn lower at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 99. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 4 higher. Energies are
mixed with crude down $0.10. Livestock trade is flat to lower. Precious metals
are flat with gold up $1.
Corn trade is 3 to 5 lower at midday in quiet trade, the daily range has
only been 7 cents trading 5 lower to 2 higher. Outside markets are mostly
neutral. Weekly EIA data had ethanol production jumping 4.8%, and stocks
dropping 2.8%, and gasoline demand slipping 4.2%. There was some ethanol
adjusting occurring with price slipping giving us the higher usage number
apparently. But the lower gasoline demand and higher production has led to
lower ethanol futures action. This is taking profit margin away for producers.
Weather looks to provide showers in the west in the next five days while
opportunities for fieldwork in the east next week. May chart support is at the
$4.96 20-day moving average with resistance at $5.19, the high printed last
week. Most expect trade to remain within our recent range this afternoon and
tomorrow ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.
Soybean trade is 12 to 17 higher at midday sitting just below the new highs
printed overnight, meal is $3 to $4 higher and bean oil is 65 to 75 points
higher. Commercial buying has been noted on our strength this week due to our
tight old-crop cash supplies. Although the news-crop-supply scenario appears
abundant, price rationing is needed on old crop, plus we still need to get
supplies out of tight farmer hands. The July/November spread moved to new highs
overnight to a $2.70 inverse. The slower planting progress should limit the new
crop gains for now. The NOPA March crush report exceeded expectations
yesterday at 153.8 million bushels. On the May chart nearby support is at the
$14.83 10-day, then the $14.63 20-day. Resistance is at the $15.25 overnight
Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with mixed spillover direction from
the row crops. Light long profit taking surfacing after the 40 cent rally the
past two sessions. The weather forecast remains troubling for the Southern
Plains in the near term with better weather for the eastern areas expected. The
Russia/Ukraine tensions remain front and center; this has been an item behind
our strength this week. We are above all major moving averages so nearby May
support is at the Kansas City $7.55 20-day and Chicago $6.87 20-day moving
averages. The 20-day is the highest major moving average.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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