DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/10 11:00
Beans, Corn Down at Midday
Midday trade is generally soft ahead of the WASDE report.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 60. The
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 10 higher. Energies are
mostly lower with crude down $1.30. Livestock trade is mixed with strength in
hogs. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $4.
Corn trade is 1 to 3 lower at midday with pressure from weaker outside
markets after disappointed Chinese economic data and with grains generally
being overbought after the rally. Trade has bounced off the early overnight
weakness. The USDA will release the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates this morning at 11. The trade is expecting a 1.488-billion-bushel
carryover versus the 1.481-bb number last month. The range of estimates is
1.431 bb to 1.656 bb. The world carryover is expected to be down by 1 million
tons to 156.3 million metric tons due to slight decreases in South American
production. Export inspections were good at 933,974 metric tons.
Soybean trade is 12 to 17 lower at midday with the pressure coming from the
spillover from outside markets. Meal is $6 to $7 lower, while oil is narrowly
mixed. Looking toward this morning's report, the average trade guesses for the
carryover to come in at 141 million versus the 150 million number on the last
report. The world carryover is expected to be down 1.5 million metric tons
versus the 73-million-metric-ton February number. Brazilian production is
expected to be down around 2 million and Argentina down around a half million
tons. South American extended forecasts show improvement for the late-planted
areas, and the Brazil shipments are moving better now, but still have to catch
up. Export inspections were very strong at 1.505 million metric tons.
Wheat trade is flat to 3 higher across the three contracts at midday with
shrugging off the outside market pressure for now.. The Ukraine/Russia
situation remains tense, especially over Crimea, but nothing major happened
over the weekend. Weather looks like more of the same in the near term, with
moisture limited in the west, but with more-seasonal temperatures. The March
Supply and Demand report has the trade looking for a steady world carryover
with the 183.7-million-ton February number. The domestic carryover is expected
to be at 570 versus 558 million last month, the range of estimates is 549-615
million bushels. On the chart, the May Chicago 10-day at $6.20 is support,
resistance is at the 200-day at $6.65. Export inspections were a little softer
at 429,081 metric tons.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Advisor
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