DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/03 11:14
Grain Trade Lower at Midday
Trade is lower at midday but is off the early lows.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 50 points. The interest
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 5 points higher. Energies are
lower with crude oil down $1.00. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious
metals are higher with gold up $5.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade bouncing off the early
lows. Now the market is looking for a trading range heading toward the August
USDA supply and demand numbers due out on Wednesday August 12th. Weather
remains non-threatening in the near term, and crop progress is expected to show
steady to slightly better conditions, with maturity near normal. The weekly
export inspections were decent at 920,708 metric tons. Chart direction remains
down, but the momentum has slowed towards the end of the week. On the December
chart corn resistance is in the $3.97 area where we find the 10-, 50-, and
100-day moving averages. Support is at the $3.75 low printed overnight then the
$3.62 1/2 contract low.
Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents lower at midday with selling tied to generally
commodity liquidation and good weather as the key reproductive period starts.
Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. The weekly export
inspections were soft at 148,498. The weekly crop progress report is expected
to show steady to slightly better conditions with maturity slightly behind the
average pace. Good weather can add soybean yield well into September so
forecasts should continue to be the most important market directional indicator
looking to next week. On the November chart support is the contract lows at
$8.95. Resistance is the 100-day moving average at $9.55.
Wheat trade is 4 to 8 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with
the generally commodity weakness and the strong dollar encouraging selling with
the Kansas City contract making fresh lows this morning. We are $1.25 below the
high reached a month ago. Exports have improved the last couple of weeks but
world supplies and the strong dollar have kept the lid on bounces. The weekly
export inspections were disappointing at 298,048 metric tons. The weekly crop
progress report is expected to show winter wheat harvest nearly complete, and
spring wheat conditions steady, and harvest slightly ahead of the average pace.
On the September Kansas City wheat chart support is the fresh low at 4.81 with
the 10-day moving average resistance at $5.02.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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