DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/25 11:09
Soybeans Lead Grains Higher at Midday
Trade is higher across the board at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are flat to lower with the Dow futures down
15. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 27 lower.
Energies are lower with crude down 1.10. Livestock trade is mostly lower.
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $2.
Corn trade is 4 to 6 higher at midday with trade following soybeans higher.
Ethanol margins should remain stable in the near term with corn and ethanol
consolidating in their recent ranges. The warmer temperatures will likely
lessen nearby feed demand. The USDA announced 116,000 metric tons of milo sold
to unknown destinations. The weekly progress report showed harvest progress at
94% vs. 92% on average. No major news is expected this week; grain trade will
be closed on Wednesday night, Thursday and open at 8:30 on Friday and close at
noon. On the March corn chart support is at the $3.80 100-day moving average
with resistance at the $3.87 10-day, which we have tested this morning, then
the $4.01 November high.
Soybean trade is 14 to 18 cents higher at midday with commercial buying
returning to the markets. Meal is $12 to $15 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points
higher. South American crop progress and conditions are expected to be improved
in the near term with better rains coming over much of crop growing areas. The
weekly crop progress report was 97% vs. 98% on average. Nearby chart support
for Monday is the 20-day moving average at 10.32 which held up today, then $10
with resistance now the 100-day up at $10.43 which we moved solidly above at
midday, then the January three-month high reached a few weeks ago at $10.86.
Wheat trade is 6 to 12 cents higher across the three exchanges at midday
with commercial buying showing up in firmer spread trade so far this morning.
The dollar continues to hold near the upper end of the range but has set back a
little bit at midday. Weather and the Russian/Ukraine political news will be
watched with warmer temps in the United States limiting weather stress in the
coming week, but temps are expected to dip in Russia. Crop conditions declined
2% to 58% good to excellent, with 6% poor to very poor, with emergence rated at
92% vs. 89% on average. On the March Kansas City chart support is at the
$5.97-6.02 area where we find both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages.
Resistance is the recent high of $6.15 , which we have edged just above at
midday, then the 100-day at $6.29.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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